Here’s the latest on El Niño as of now.
- What El Niño is doing: ENSO is transitioning from neutral toward El Niño conditions, with forecasters estimating a notable likelihood that El Niño becomes established sometime between May and July, continuing into winter in many projections. This would influence global weather patterns, including warmer global temperatures and shifting rainfall in various regions.[3][4]
- Confidence and variability: While there is a rising probability of El Niño developing, the exact strength and duration remain uncertain and depend on ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Pacific.[4][9]
- Impacts to watch: If El Niño strengthens, expect changes such as increased rainfall in some tropical regions and drier or hotter conditions in others, along with potential implications for hurricane activity and seasonal weather patterns in multiple continents.[8][3]
- Key sources to monitor: NOAA’s ENSO blog updates, NOAA Climate.gov ENSO pages, and WMO/IRI briefings provide periodic outlooks and model guidance as conditions evolve.[1][6][8]
If you’d like, I can pull the latest specific outlook dates and regional impacts for Europe or the UK, or summarize the current probabilities from the latest NOAA/Climate Prediction Center briefing.
Citations:
- NOAA/CPC outlook on El Niño emerging between May–July with ongoing uncertainties.[3]
- NOAA/NOAA Climate.gov ENSO context and transition expectations.[1][8]
- WMO/IRI briefings and regional impact considerations for El Niño.[6][4]
Sources
Climate scientists estimate the warm weather pattern could begin to develop as early as May.
www.cbsnews.comLatest news on El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-La Niña climate pattern, which significantly alters global atmospheric circulation, affecting temperature
www.newsnow.co.ukOn the ENSO Blog's 10th anniversary, El Niño is in its last weeks and a transition to neutral conditions imminent. Our seasoned blogger discusses the outlook for later this year, and looks back at some of the global impacts of this El Niño.
www.climate.govThe likelihood of El Niño developing later this year is increasing, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This would have the opposite impacts on weather and climate patterns in many regions of the to world to the long-running La Niña and would likely fuel higher global temperatures. The unusually stubborn La Niña has now ended after a three-year run and the tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO-neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña). … At this...
wmo.intThe WMO El Niño/La Niña Update is prepared approximately every three months through a collaborative effort between WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) as a contribution to the United Nations Inter-Agency Task Force on Natural Disaster Reduction. It is based on contributions from the leading centres around the world monitoring and predicting this phenomenon and expert consensus facilitated by WMO and IRI.More on El Niño / La Niña Monitoring and...
wmo.intA strong El Niño sounds ominous — but one expert offers some answers about what could be ahead for the 2023-2024 season. Forecasters say El Niño, a climate pattern known for warmer ocean temperatures and increased rain and snow, is likely here to stay until early 2024. A massive heat wave is putting nearly 100 million people under intense triple-digit heat in the coming days. Here's how El Niño is contributing to the high temperatures. … HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fired the previous...
www.cbsnews.comEl Niño/La Niña Information
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